"May I present to you Mona and Yuli, the Knot Sisters." As he slowly backs through the performers' entrance, the two halfling dancers you saw earlier, in the full bodysuits, emerge from behind the Carnival Master as he discreetly exits. They sport serpentine makeup, scales affixed to the sides of their face and arms. Approaching the central spire, the pole that holds the tent up, one immediately leaps onto the shoulders of the other, bending her back a near-impossible amount, creating this humanoid sculpture that you see the front row cringe at the idea of the pain that would cause an average individual. But these halflings are very nimble and able to create almost a single form out of two bodies.
Their rigid form becomes fluid to the eye as they move and shift to the music, the violin now sourceless once again, not seeing where this Desmond is placed, but they seem to move as it picks up speed. LAURA: (whispers) It's like the serpent we fought, you guys! SAM: I was expecting more Ringling Brothers, actually. (laughter) MATT: Suddenly, the top one folds over and slams into the ground, tumbling across the center in a wild display of physical control. The two of them begin to tangle and wrap like two battling snakes, their bodies seemingly disconnecting from the rigid halfling forms you had seen, and you swear, for a moment, becoming serpentine-like as they intertwine around the base of this pole. It's beautiful and violent at the same time. It's off-putting https://casinoslots-sa.co.za/free-online-slots. And watch as they curl around the base of this pole, the lights above begin to become a dull greenish-blue, and get darker and darker, presenting this imagery of the underworld. One by one, they silently tell a tale of struggle, crawling across one, then the other, one at a time, using their serpentine-like forms as an extending ladder, folding over each other as they use every muscle in their body to cling around this pole and ladder-step up like a snake. It's a very strange but alluring sight, and you can't help but notice that you forget that these are two halfling girls, and you find yourself pulled into this wordless story they tell of climbing back to their place, to the surface, towards the dark sky of lightless blue cloth. As the baubles that contain the interior light of the tent begin to glow brighter and brighter, their climbing becomes more fevered. The two of them, arm into arm, leg into leg, rolling up and swirling, until eventually at the apex they grab each other's arms around the pole before spinning downward, back-to-back, legs outward, with a rapid pace, the music coming to a full crescendo. Like a Maypole, they both curl and twirl and then tumble to the ground before the audience with a flourish, arms in the air, and the audience erupts in applause. (applause) MATT: As they both begin to back away, smiles on their faces, nodding to each other, Gustav emerges once more from the performers' flap. The fool appears at the back entrance again, taking an ominous tune with his violin this time, his outfit no longer blue but deepset black. The hanging lights darken once again as Gustav takes the center stage. "In a flash, beyond the ash, the "gods all went and gone. The darkness came to grasp, reclaim, and suffocate the dawn." Suddenly, out of the darkness behind him, a burst of flame lights the room. "But from that night, a burning "light doth keep back shadows' bane. The strength to fight will set alight the morning sun again. "Ladies and gentlemen, I present to you Ornna the fire fairy." And Gustav leaves the tent once more. As you watch, a pair of metallic fans, alight with flame, now frame the beautiful woman of short red hair you had seen before in the procession. Gustav slinks into the darkness and vanishes as Ornna spins in hypnotic twirl, her simple dress of golds and reds almost glowing in the firelight around her, the flickering of the flames giving her the visage of a warrior-goddess battling the dark that surrounds. The frenzied fiddle of the fool picks up as she twirls the fans in her grasp, her face stoic and graceful simultaneously. The hushed awe of the audience fills the air, watching this magnificent warrior strike at the shadows, the lights above flickering brighter with each spin and dive, banishing the shadows from the room. She matches the pace of the music, drawing to a crescendo, and leaps, and barrel-turns and climaxes with her striking a powerful pose as the lights rocket to a victorious luminescence. Once again, the crowd goes crazy. (applause) LAURA: This is really different than most carnivals that I've gone to. SAM: It's very artistic, yeah. MATT: Gustav enters as she exits with a bow, the fans flickering out. He enters clapping at Ornna. A low drumbeat begins to beat in the distance as the fiddle grows tense once more. "Even as the sun "would rise anew, bellowing roars will quake the lands of Xhorhas and beyond. Terrible beasts, now "freed from their dark masters, scattered into our world." (roars) A terrible, guttural roar shakes the room, followed by the sounds of grinding and dragged chains. From behind the performers' flap, the half-orc, Bo, who you'd met earlier, the Breaker, and the fool, who is now still playing the fiddle, yet the bow of it continues to go on its own as he drags the other chain with his arm, wrapped around his forearm. The two of them pull something through the flap. It swells, and from beneath it is revealed an enormous creature of green scales, slimy-looking skin, and a corpulent form, large toad-like legs frame a rotund torso, and muscular arms that are manacled and pulling him in. It fights and wrestles against the taut chains as it's pulled further and further towards the center of the tent, but is held in place by the two men. It roars a second time. (roars) The front row immediately pulling back and screaming. You hear kids begin to cry. A handful of townsfolk shoot to their feet, grasping the children in fear, preparing to run. LAURA: Have we ever seen anything like this before? MARISHA: Yeah, what's it look like? LAURA: Well, he just described what it looked like. MARISHA: By name. MATT: You have not seen this creature. Gustav continues, seemingly unflinched by its approach. "The devil-toad crawls hungrily--" SAM: But what does it look like? (laughter) MATT: "--into the land of the free folk, lording over nightmares as they say, and what truth lies "behind the eyes of this beast? What would be learned when the guiding heart of innocence "pierces the hateful soul and brings it to see beauty for the first time? I present to you the "vivid voice of Toya." And as Gustav backs away, the devil-toad struggling against the chains, a soft, faint voice begins to slowly emanate from the air-- (a voice appears in the background music) (exclamations) MATT: Eyes previously locked on the frightening creature now seek a source and find, atop a platform within the chamber, high up on a small platform set against the apex of the pole, a young dwarven girl, maybe 12 years of age, her braided golden hair clasped and her hands at her side, a white dress obscuring her feet. She sings with a mystifying, mature voice that pierces your hearts with joy, unexpectedly and uncontrollably. The crowd audibly gasps as one, the entrancing song of this girl bringing every person into this music. The devil-toad stops struggling against the chains, seemingly caught by the sound of her voice. Its face drops into a soft smile as it slowly walks towards the base of the pole and sits. The half-orc and the fool drop the chains and back away, leaving the beast free in its rapture. Her voice almost begins to summon a chorus from the ether, magical in nature, as there are no others but her joining into this piece.
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MARISHA: I turn back to the rest of them. TALIESIN: Such grace! Such form! Such dignity! TRAVIS: The birds are out already. MATT: At which point, the other Bo, Bo the Breaker, goes ahead and collects five copper from each of you as you pass through, so mark off five copper, except for the two of you, you guys are part of it.
LAURA: If I skip around, will I be part of the show and then I don't have to pay? TALIESIN: Weirdly, being part of the show means you strangely pay more. I'm not entirely sure how that works. LIAM: Nott, do you have five copper? SAM: For you, Caleb, I do. LIAM: No, I'm not asking. I was going to help you, but if you have it, you're good. SAM: No, you've been spotting me all day, I'll take care of both of us. ASHLEY: Mollymauk. That Jester's adorable. TALIESIN: I know. Highly entertained. ASHLEY: I like her. TALIESIN: I do too. MATT: So, stepping into the interior of the tent, the rocky floor filled with grass and dirt and various flattened groundscape on the outskirts of the Ustaloch, you can see a thick, heavy tarp-like material hitting the very edge where the heavy dark blue cloth hangs from the sides of the tent you're within. You can see where the seating is guided across the floor, and there, already in a very packed room, you see a few dozen townsfolk that have begun to gather in a semicircle. There is the entrance flap of the tent where you guys are walking in. As soon as you walk in, you can see a central pillar, a heavy column of wood, a tree that has been completely rounded off on all sides, held aloft to carry the top of the canopy of the tent itself. And across the way, you can see a larger flap tent that is currently closed that appears to be probably the performers' entrance. You can see above you four hanging lanterns that glow with what seems like a flicker of light, but the pattern to them is consistent, meaning it's not probably natural flame. Children and people are beginning to mash around the sides, and the space along the edges of the interior of this tent is starting to get a little cramped. Where do you guide them, Yasha? ASHLEY: Did you guys want to sit in the front row? SAM: That's what we were told is the best seat in the house. ASHLEY: We want to sit in the front row. MATT: So there's-- if you consider a semicircle pattern here, there's-- if you're entering, you can go front to the right, front to the left, front to the center, anywhere in between. Where would you like to be currently sitting? ASHLEY: Front and center? Or do you want to be on the sides? LAURA: Front and center! ASHLEY: I take them to the front and center. MATT: Front and center, okay. LIAM: I'm going to keep my hand on my meager purse for the evening. MATT: Okay. LAURA: As soon as I sit down, I'm going to pull out my sketchbook and draw the moon and the shadow card that Molly showed me. MARISHA: As we're walking over, I say, hey, Yasha, 'cause I was totally on your shoulder, heard you talking about my friend, Jester. ASHLEY: Ah, shit. MARISHA: Yeah. ASHLEY: I didn't mean anything by it. I just-- MARISHA: No, dude. No, she's never mentioned a significant other, so, I mean. ASHLEY: Oh, I'm not looking for anything, I just-- MARISHA: Will you hold me through the show? (laughter) MARISHA: Like, cradle me? ASHLEY: That's an extra charge. We do do that, though. MARISHA: How much? ASHLEY: Well, it's an extra five gold pieces. MARISHA: Five gold? ASHLEY: These arms are worth a lot. TALIESIN: It's a very swaddling hug. You've never experienced anything like it. ASHLEY: It's the best way to see the show, if that's how you want it. MARISHA: I'll give you five silver just to have your shrug to sit on so my butt's not on the floor. ASHLEY: I don't take off my shrug. MARISHA: Oh, sorry. ASHLEY: How about you just keep your money and I'll put you in a chair and I'll just watch over your weapons. MARISHA: Okay. MATT: So she places you on the ground, as there are no chairs. ASHLEY: On the ground, I mean, because there's no chairs. LAURA: Oh, there's no chairs? Aw. I was picturing benches. That's okay. TRAVIS: There's no benches? Oh, fuck. MATT: Where are they going to transport benches from place to place? ASHLEY: That's a good point. TRAVIS: Carnival? I don't know. (laughter) MATT: Well, sorry, you have Fletching and Moondrop to deal with. TALIESIN: Bring a cushion from home like a regular person. MATT: So, as the music has died down and everyone begins to crowd in and whisper to themselves, eventually it begins to quiet a bit, everyone having their seats. The familiar sound of the fiddle begins to play, and everyone quickly gets quiet, down to a hush. The music seems sourceless in the interior of the tent. Everyone begins to look around to see where it may come from. You hear points of hushed "look"s, pointing off in different areas, and at the top of the tent, you see, seeming to stretch and fall, like a slow drop of water, the man in red you saw earlier descends from the top of the tent, but now dressed head-to-toe in a matching deep blue outfit and full makeup, to where he appears out of the canopy of the tent. He hangs from a rope by one foot, it's wrapped around and clutched as his foot catches the edge. Playing his violin ever-so-slowly as he carefully descends, and then at the last moment releases the rope and lands on his feet, continuing the music he's playing. He slowly spins as the longer-haired elf leader of the earlier parade that you saw, the one that had marked back briefly to your two new friends over here, enters the tent from the distant flaps, the performers' entrance, his head now sporting that same tall hat, flopping backwards at the apex. He extends his arms, removing the hat, and takes a deep bow as the crowd begins to clap. (applause) MATT: "Ladies and gentlemen of Trostenwald, I am Carnival Master Gustav Fletching, and allow me to "welcome you to the Fletching and Moondrop's Traveling Carnival of Curiosities." (applause) MATT: "I ask you, each and every one of you--" You hear some children giggle as he makes eye contact. " --grant us your imaginations this eve but a trifle bit of time, and allow us to reveal a realm "of laughter, mystery, danger, and beauty. I see you've already met Desmond." And he gestures towards the man in all blue who's playing the fiddle. "He'll be part of our story tonight, so "keep a wily eye for the shifting fool. But first, I tell you a tale of two sisters of the Fey." And as Desmond slowly leaves the tent, you see two armored guards by where he is now have entered, two of the Crown's Guard are stepping by the entrance where he walked in, watch him pass. "Lost "without form into the mazes of the underworld. There, where the body would break, they found a "teacher in a mystical serpent, and the gift they received was the ability to bend with this maze "that captured them and slither their way back to the surface to reclaim their place in the world. Here's an article about that poker law from the Seattle Post Intelligencer, which talks about how poker is bad. Then here's one of these trade organizations, the American Gaming Association, so if you Google the American Gaming Association, you might find this article. I can email a copy of this if you want, if you're interested in where these stats come from that I'm putting on some of these slides. They're one of the organizations that gathers data on that industry. So here's a story.
There was a businessman a few years ago, about five years ago. And he raised $50 million in investments for a company that was supposed to be on the verge of obtaining a patent for a lucrative new tooth whitening product. Raised $40 million. There was such a product, but this guy had no connection to it. He was a swindler. In fact, he had seen this product advertised on the shopping network. So he started raising money for it, claiming he had a patent and that he was going to sell it to Proctor & Gamble. Well, he spent $10 million of this $40 million to buy homes, condos, nice cars. And he gambled away all the rest of it, $30 million betting on baseball at an offshore casino. So he went completely broke. The investors started asking for their money. He promised them 100:1 return on their investment, and he didn't have any. So he got busted, he declared bankruptcy, he was sent to prison. So the victims of the swindle retained a law firm that specializes in recovering funds from bankruptcy cases. So they got the homes and the car seized and got the money back from that-- they got a few million bucks back from that. Enough to pay the attorney fees, basically. Then they filed a lawsuit against the casino. They said a bunch of things. One, they said the casino wasn't doing its due diligence. They should have known this guy was a swindler. This was all done online and by telephone. They said with this kind of money and stuff, they should have checked up. Well, in fact, the guy was betting directly by wires from the Bank of Montreal that were sent into the offshore account. So the Bank of Montreal was equally culpable. So they sort of gave up on the due diligence argument. So then they alleged in this lawsuit that the online casino has to return the money because that the casino was either cheating the swindler, or the casino was involved with the swindler in a money laundering scheme. In other words, the swindler wasn't really losing this money, he was just feeding it to this offshore account, and he was going to later split it with the guy who ran the casino. Well, the guy who ran the casino had pretty good records and he could show that he was keeping that money for himself and wasn't going to share it with anybody, especially some guy who just got out of jail and was working at a gas station. So they decided to focus on this. If the casino had given the swindler proper betting odds, he couldn't possibly have lost $30 million over a two year period. In other words, the result couldn't have been due to chance. Sort of what I was talking about before with the good strategy. In other words, the swindler's losses were just too extreme to be explained by chance. Well the swindler was betting on baseball games. He was betting on 10 games a day, 15K a game. And when the baseball season wasn't on, he was betting on hockey. So if you translate that, $15,000 a bet, 10 bets a day over two years, you get about $110 million in betting action, which is called churn. So that's how much betting action we have from this guy before he finally got busted. He didn't go broke, he just got busted. I guess he was pretty much broke at the time. So the question is how much on average will a gambler lose when he bets $110 million in relatively small increments over time? And of course, the answer is it depends. It depends on the bets. In particular, it depends on the house edge, which is sometimes called the hold percentage in sports betting. So with roulette, the house edge is 5.3%. So if the gambler makes roulette bets with a house edge of 5.3% at that rate, 10 bets a day, $15,000 a bet, you'd lose an average of about $6 million. In fact, you can also compute a probability here for roulette. The chance of losing $30 million or more making those kinds of bets is less than 1 in 1,000. So it's really unlikely that if this guy was playing roulette he would lose that kind of money. As we've seen, sports betting is different from roulette, but still you can talk about the hold percentage. Well, in baseball betting, just real quickly, there's something different than a point spread, it's called the money line, and the money line is just another way of stating payoff odds. So the favorite has a negative money line, which means you have to bet more to win a certain amount. |
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